1. Respond to the following in a minimum of 175 words:
Probability is something that we can use to understand the likelihood of various outcomes.
Define and explain probability. How can the understanding of probability assist you in your day to day activities as well as your future career?
2. Reply to the following post:
A probability is a number that reflects the chance or likelihood that a specific event will occur. It is a ratio of the number of ways an event can occur to the number of possible outcomes. These probabilities can be expressed as proportions and/or percentages.
The concept probability can be illustrated with the local weather report. Meteorologist express the probability of precipitation on a given day as a percentage. This percentage is a reflection of how many days it rained in the past out of 100 days with similar weather conditions. For example, if the weather forecast calls for a 20% chance of rain, that means of the last 100 days of similar weather conditions it rained on only 20 of those days.
I believe most of us rely upon probability daily without realizing it. As for myself, I look at the weather forecast each morning including the hourly forecast, to determine if my children are dressed appropriately for school. Probability is also used to determine batting averages, what your chances are to win the lottery, in play calling for many sports, in banking and investing, and even insurance.
I believe in my future career as an accountant I will rely on probability quite often.
3. Reply to the following post:
The term probability refers to the likelihood of an event occurring. Probability can be expressed in a variety of ways including a mathematically formal way such as using percentages. It can also be expressed using vocabulary such as “unlikely,” “likely,” “certain,” or “possible.” Calculating probabilities in a situation like a coin toss is straightforward, because the outcomes are mutually exclusive: either one event or the other must occur. Each coin toss is an independent event; the outcome of one trial has no effect on subsequent ones. No matter how many consecutive times one side lands facing up, the probability that it will do so at the next toss is always .5 (50-50). The mistaken idea that a number of consecutive results (six “heads” for example) makes it more likely that the next toss will result in a “tails” is known as the gambler’s fallacy, one that has led to the downfall of many a bettor. Probability can be used in several areas in day to day activities as well as your future career. This means things like predicting chance or rain (or right now in Oklahoma – tornadoes), chances of snow, based on how poorly the interview went, it is unlikely I will get the job, the can chances that the Thunder will make the payoffs next year. In my future career it will be useful in determining the chance of a security breech.